The 2035 Net-Zero Goal: Mapping Alberta’s Transition Path

As of December 2025, Alberta’s electricity landscape sits at a historic crossroads.

The tension between the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) and provincial sovereignty has reached a pragmatic truce through the November 2025 Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

This agreement, signed by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Danielle Smith, places the CER in "abeyance" for Alberta, shifting the focus from a hard 2035 federal mandate to a collaborative, technology-driven path toward Carbon Neutrality by 2050.

For Alberta, the challenge remains: How do we integrate a massive influx of intermittent renewables while preserving the reliability of our natural gas-based grid?

This white paper outlines a strategic transition path that leverages Alberta’s "natural gas heritage" as a foundation for a high-penetration renewable future, ensuring that the lights stay on even when the wind stops and the sun sets.

1. The Policy Landscape: A Shift from Mandate to Market

The political friction of the early 2020s has given way to a "Made-in-Alberta" decarbonization strategy. The core pillars of the 2025 policy environment include:

• The TIER Realignment: Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) program will see carbon pricing ramp up to $130/tonne by 2030, aligning provincial costs with federal expectations without the rigid operational constraints of the original CER.

• The 2050 Horizon: While the federal goal for a net-zero grid remains 2035, the MOU recognizes Alberta’s unique reliance on thermal baseload, granting a transition window that extends toward 2050.

• Interprovincial Connectivity: A renewed commitment to massive transmission interties with British Columbia and Saskatchewan aims to create a Western Canadian Power Pool, allowing Alberta to export surplus solar/wind and import hydro-based "firm" power during shortages.

2. Natural Gas: The Reliability Anchor

Natural gas is not an obstacle to net-zero; it is the bridge. In 2025, natural gas accounted for roughly 74% of Alberta’s generation. To reach 2035 targets without compromising reliability, the strategy must transition from "unabated" to "abated" gas.

Fuel Source	Approximate Share of Generation
Natural Gas	~74%
Renewables (Wind/Solar)	~22%
Hydro, Biomass & Other	~4%
Coal	0% (Phased out in 2024)

 The Role of CCUS and Hydrogen

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is the linchpin. Projects like Pathways Plus and the Moraine Power Generating Project demonstrate that natural gas can provide low-carbon baseload.

By 2035, we anticipate a "Two-Tier" Gas Market:

1. Peaking Plants: Unabated gas units that run only during extreme demand peaks or "dunkelflaute" (periods of no wind/solar).

2. Baseload CCUS: Large-scale combined-cycle plants equipped with 90%+ carbon capture, providing the "inertia" required for grid stability.

3. The Renewable Surge: Solar, Wind, and Storage

Alberta led Canada in renewable growth through 2024 and 2025, thanks to our "energy-only" market and world-class wind and solar resources. However, the "duck curve", where high solar output during the day crashes at sunset just as demand peaks, requires a massive scale-up in Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).

Diversifying the Mix

• Solar: Projects like the Big Rock Solar Project (90 MW) are now standard, but they are increasingly co-located with storage to provide "dispatchable" renewables.

• Wind: Wind continues to be the lowest-cost energy source, but its volatility necessitates a high degree of geographical diversity across the province.

• Energy Storage: The next decade belongs to storage. We are moving beyond 1–4-hour lithium-ion batteries toward long-duration storage (e.g., flow batteries or compressed air) to bridge multi-day weather events.

4. Mapping the 2035 Transition Path

The transition is a multi-phase evolution of the Restructured Energy Market (REM), scheduled for full implementation in 2027.

Milestone	Key Objective	Technology Focus
2025–2027	Stability & Integration	BESS deployment; TIER price alignment.
2028–2032	Interconnection	BC-AB Intertie expansion; first SMR (Small Modular Reactor) site approvals.
2033–2035	Abatement	Mandatory CCUS for new baseload gas; 75% methane reduction achieved.

 Technical Reality: The Carbon Intensity Formula

To measure progress, Alberta tracks the grid’s carbon intensity (CI). The goal is to drive the current average down significantly by 2035:

Where:

• Ei is the energy produced by source i (MWh).

• EFi is the emission factor for source i (tCO_2e/MWh).

As renewable E increases and EF for gas decreases via CCUS, the grid nears net-zero.

5. The Big Rock Power Vision

At Big Rock Power, we believe Alberta can be an energy superpower that leads in both conventional and clean energy. Our commitment involves:

• Hybridization: Integrating 40 MW+ of storage with every major solar installation to ensure grid reliability.

• Indigenous Partnership: Prioritizing co-ownership models that ensure the energy transition provides long-term economic reconciliation.

• Grid Services: Utilizing BESS not just for energy, but for frequency regulation and voltage support to keep the provincial grid resilient.

Conclusion

Alberta’s path to 2035 is not about choosing between gas and renewables; it is about the intelligent orchestration of both.

By leveraging our natural gas heritage through CCUS and aggressively scaling wind, solar, and storage, we can fulfill the spirit of the Clean Electricity Regulations while protecting Albertans' wallets and ensuring energy security. The MOU of 2025 has given us the breathing room to build a system that works for the North, for industry, and for the future.