Cooling Down a Warming World: How AC Demand is Straining Our Grids, And How Big Rock Powers the Solution
- Larry Peters
- Jul 22
- 15 min read
Updated: Jul 31
Think about this: the energy needed to keep us cool will soon outstrip the demands of the entire AI boom!
By 2035, air conditioners are expected to triple their electricity use, with higher energy needs than the highly-reported on data centers. Global demand for cooling systems is set to rise by around 1,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2035, significantly surpassing the projected 800 TWh increase for data centers during the same period.
The global air conditioning market is experiencing explosive growth, a clear indicator of the world's increasing thirst for cool air.
· Valued at USD 110.67 Billion in 2023, the market is projected to surge to USD 202.31 Billion by 2032, boasting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.91%.
· Another analysis estimates the market at USD 212.17 billion in 2025, with an expected rise to USD 272.73 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.15%.
This rapid expansion is driven by a confluence of factors, transforming AC from a luxury item to a recognized utility.
Stepping into a blast of cool, air-conditioned air on a scorching summer day offers a moment of pure relief. It’s a comfort many of us now consider essential, not just a luxury. But have you ever wondered about the hidden costs of that refreshing chill, both to your wallet and to the planet?
As global temperatures continue to reach new heights, with 2024 on track to be the warmest year on record, the need for cooling technologies is intensifying. This escalating reliance on air conditioning (AC) is creating a complex feedback loop, driving up electricity demand and straining our energy grids in unprecedented ways.
The increasing need for AC is more than a matter of comfort; it has become a critical public health and safety issue. In many parts of the world, especially regions historically less accustomed to extreme heat, AC is now a vital tool for survival. However, the paradox lies in how this essential solution currently contributes to the very problem it seeks to alleviate: most AC units are powered by electricity often generated from fossil fuels, thereby fueling climate change. This creates a challenging cycle, one that demands innovative and sustainable energy solutions.
Join us as we unpack this complex challenge, from the human impact of heatwaves to the booming AC industry and the strain on our grids, and explore how pioneering solutions, including those championed by Big Rock Power, are essential for a sustainable future.
When the Heat Hits Home: Climate Change, Heatwaves, and Human Lives
The reality of a warming planet is stark, manifesting most acutely in the escalating frequency and intensity of heatwaves worldwide. These extreme heat events are directly linked to human-induced climate change, with 2024 marking another year of record-breaking temperatures that have caused massive spikes in electricity demand globally.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver behind these increasingly severe and frequent heatwaves, a trend expected to intensify even if global warming is stabilized at 1.5°C.
The devastating human toll of these events was tragically illustrated by the 2021 British Columbia heat dome. This prolonged period of abnormally high temperatures covered a large geographic area of western Canada and the United States, exposing many to hazardous heat.
In British Columbia alone, this extreme heat event led to the deaths of 619 people. The town of Lytton, B.C., set an all-time high-temperature record for Canada at a staggering 49.6°C (121.3°F), a temperature estimated to be 150 times more likely and 2°C hotter due to human-induced climate change.
Imagine temperatures nearly reaching 50°C in a place not typically known for such extreme heat. This wasn't just uncomfortable; it was deadly. A sobering detail from this catastrophe is that almost all of these deaths occurred in people's homes, underscoring a critical lack of adequate cooling infrastructure or access.
This heat dome also directly impacted the energy system, leading to increased electricity demand in both Alberta and British Columbia that was noticeably higher than in previous summers, primarily driven by the widespread use of air conditioning.
Beyond mortality, extreme heat carries broader public health consequences. Heatwaves are consistently associated with increased emergency department visits and hospital admissions, incurring billions in added healthcare costs each summer. The human body functions optimally within a narrow temperature range, and extreme heat can overwhelm its natural thermoregulation processes. This can lead to severe health impacts, including dehydration, which strains major organs like the heart and kidneys.
Cardiac stress and failure are particularly dangerous, representing the primary cause of death during heatwaves, especially for older adults with pre-existing heart conditions.
The psychological toll is also significant, with heatwaves worsening mental health issues and increasing emergency room visits for mental health concerns. Furthermore, heat exhaustion and the life-threatening heat stroke are direct risks when the body can no longer regulate its temperature.
Respiratory distress is another major concern, as breathing hot and humid air exacerbates conditions like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), compounded by increased air pollution like ozone during hot periods.
Certain populations bear a disproportionate burden during heatwaves. Adults over 65, individuals with cardiopulmonary issues and other chronic diseases, outdoor workers, pregnant people, and very young children are at the highest risk.
This reality highlights a critical social equity dimension to climate change adaptation. For instance, data indicates that AC penetration is significantly lower among renters and lower-income households compared to homeowners and higher-income groups. Older homes, too, are less likely to have AC than newer constructions.
This disparity creates a direct link between socioeconomic status, housing quality, and vulnerability to extreme heat. It reveals that climate adaptation solutions, such as access to cooling, must actively address equity to prevent existing societal inequalities from being further exacerbated. This situation also points to a pressing need for policy interventions, such as regulated indoor temperature limits or grants for retrofitting older buildings to improve cooling access.
The 2021 British Columbia heat dome serves as a profound warning. Despite having a relatively low AC penetration rate (45%) compared to provinces like Ontario (83%) or countries like the U.S. and Japan (over 85%), British Columbia experienced a devastating 619 heat-related deaths. This outcome underscores that regions historically less reliant on AC are now highly susceptible to catastrophic heat-related mortality. It challenges the assumption that only traditionally hot climates require robust cooling strategies.
Instead, it demonstrates that unpreparedness in previously temperate zones, coupled with climate change-driven extreme events, creates severe vulnerability. This necessitates a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to cooling infrastructure and public health warnings across all geographies, including Canada.
The AC Boom: A Global Thirst for Cool Air
The global air conditioning market is experiencing explosive growth, a clear indicator of the world's increasing thirst for cool air.
· Valued at USD 110.67 Billion in 2023, the market is projected to surge to USD 202.31 Billion by 2032, boasting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.91%.
· Another analysis estimates the market at USD 212.17 billion in 2025, with an expected rise to USD 272.73 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.15%.
This rapid expansion is driven by a confluence of factors, transforming AC from a luxury item to a recognized utility.
The primary drivers behind this boom include rising global temperatures and humidity, exacerbated by climate change, and rapid urbanization, particularly in emerging economies. As disposable incomes increase worldwide, more consumers are prioritizing comfort and health benefits, leading to a surge in AC adoption.
Geographically, the Asia-Pacific region currently holds the largest market share, propelled by robust construction activity and increasing consumer spending in countries like China, India, and Indonesia. While the U.S. has historically held a significant market share, Canada has emerged as the fastest-growing market in its region, reflecting a shifting climate and evolving consumer needs.
The implications of this growth for global electricity demand are staggering. By 2050, it is projected that around two-thirds of the world's households will own an air conditioning unit. AC units and electric fans already account for a substantial 10% of all global electricity consumed, representing approximately a fifth of the total electricity utilized in buildings worldwide.
The sheer scale of this energy demand is often underestimated. By 2035, air conditioners are expected to triple their electricity use, with higher energy needs than the highly-reported on data centers. Global demand for cooling systems is set to rise by around 1,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2035, significantly surpassing the projected 800 TWh increase for data centers during the same period.
Think about that: the energy needed to keep us cool will soon outstrip the demands of the entire AI boom!
This isn't just a niche concern; it's a global energy juggernaut. Currently, space cooling electricity consumption has more than tripled since 1990, with indirect CO2 emissions from this sector nearly tripling to over 1 gigatonne of CO2 in 2022.
This rapid growth in AC demand, particularly prevalent in hot, emerging economies, presents a significant challenge often termed a "development trap." While essential for climate adaptation and human well-being, the widespread adoption of cooling technologies is currently exacerbating climate change.
This is because most AC units are powered by electricity that, in many parts of the world, is still generated from fossil fuels.
For example, India, a major growth market for AC, relies heavily on coal for its electricity. This creates a critical feedback loop: climate change drives the demand for AC, which in turn drives more fossil fuel electricity generation, which then contributes to further climate change. This "development trap" means that as living standards improve and populations grow in hot regions, the environmental burden increases unless there is a rapid and widespread shift to clean energy sources for cooling. This situation underscores the paramount importance of implementing higher energy efficiency standards for AC units and promoting greener building designs to break this cycle.
Furthermore, the projection that electricity demand from air conditioning will surpass that of data centers by 2035 indicates a significant underestimation of the cooling challenge in public discourse and policy planning. While data centers and artificial intelligence are "highly-reported on" and frequently discussed as major stressors on utilities in developed economies, the global demand for cooling presents a larger, more widespread, and potentially more humanitarian challenge.
This is particularly true in emerging economies where many communities already face the prospect of heat-related deaths and illness within already fragile energy systems. This disparity in attention highlights a potential misallocation of focus and resources, suggesting an urgent need for increased public awareness and a more robust policy focus on sustainable cooling solutions globally.
Key Table 1: Global AC Growth & Electricity Demand Projections
Metric | Current/Recent Data (Approx.) | Projected Data (Year) |
Global AC Units in Operation | ~2 billion | |
Global AC Market Size | USD 110.67 Billion (2023) | USD 202.31 Billion (2032) |
Global AC Market Size (Alternative) | USD 212.17 Billion (2025) | USD 272.73 Billion (2030) |
AC Penetration (Global Population) | 37% (2022) | >45% (2030) |
Households Owning AC | ~2/3 (2050) | |
Space Cooling Electricity (Additional) | 697 TWh (2030) | |
AC Electricity Use (Increase) | Tripling (2035) | |
Share of Global Electricity Demand (AC) | 10% (current, with fans) | 10% (2030, growing demand) |
The Grid Under Pressure: Soaring Demand, Spiking Prices, and Blackout Risks
The widespread adoption and use of air conditioning, particularly during intense heatwaves, is placing unprecedented strain on electricity grids worldwide. AC units are major contributors to peak electricity demand, which occurs when the highest number of consumers use electricity simultaneously, typically in the late afternoon and early evening when temperatures are at their peak. In 2024 alone, more than 40 countries, collectively representing nearly 70% of global electricity demand, reached new power peak demand records during heatwaves.
· For instance, California's energy grid experienced a significant 20% increase in demand during the hottest days of summer 2024, primarily due to widespread AC use.
· In Texas, cooling demand can account for a staggering 50% of total peak demand on the warmest days.
· India's grid faces similar pressures, with each 1°C increase in temperature leading to an additional peak demand of over 7 GW.
It's like everyone hitting the gas pedal at the exact same moment, our power grid simply wasn't built for this kind of synchronized surge.
This intense strain on the grid has direct and often dramatic economic consequences, translating into higher electricity costs for consumers. During heatwaves, electricity prices can spike dramatically. In a striking example, real-time electricity prices (known as Locational Marginal Prices, or LMPs) in New York exploded to nearly $3,000 per megawatt-hour during a July 2025 heatwave, representing more than 30 times the usual rate.
That's not a typo!
Imagine your grocery bill multiplying by 30 times during a heatwave. While an individual's exact monthly bill might not reflect that extreme peak, these underlying costs certainly do, and they ripple through to monthly statements, particularly for those on variable electricity plans. The average U.S. household, for instance, paid about $186 per month for electricity during summer months, a 4% increase from the previous year, largely driven by rising natural gas prices and the increased reliance on less efficient "peaker" plants to meet surging demand.
The escalating demand also heightens the threat of power outages.
Reports indicate that heat domes and surging grid demand are increasingly threatening power grids with blackouts across various regions, including the Midwest, New England, and Texas-Louisiana. The strain on electricity grids raises significant concerns about reliability and the potential for widespread power outages.
Blackouts during heatwaves are particularly dangerous, as they remove access to critical cooling technologies, thereby increasing health risks for vulnerable populations.
The challenges extend beyond just demand. High temperatures can reduce the efficiency of power plants, especially those reliant on water for cooling, sometimes forcing them to reduce output or even shut down.
Furthermore, transmission lines and transformers can overheat, degrading their performance, increasing electrical resistance, and potentially leading to failures or fires. Transmission bottlenecks also pose a significant barrier, delaying the integration of new, cleaner power sources into the grid.
The reliance on inefficient "peaker plants" and fossil fuels to meet peak AC demand during heatwaves creates a detrimental cycle. When demand surges, utilities often activate these less efficient, part-time power stations, which frequently run on natural gas.
This means that the very act of cooling to adapt to climate change (heatwaves) is often powered by energy sources that contribute to climate change (fossil fuels), creating a self-reinforcing loop.
Moreover, these peaker plants are expensive to operate, directly contributing to higher electricity prices and increasing the economic burden on consumers. This situation underscores the urgent need for flexible, clean energy sources and energy storage solutions to address peak demand without relying on carbon-intensive and costly alternatives.
Compounding this, there is a noticeable shift towards applying peak demand charges to residential customers, a practice previously common only for large commercial entities. These fees are designed to reflect the strain a household places on the grid during its most energy-intensive times, accounting for the infrastructure needed to meet instantaneous demand and aiming to encourage more mindful energy consumption.
This represents a significant change in how consumers are billed, making them more directly accountable for their instantaneous energy usage, not just their total consumption. While this approach can incentivize efficiency, it also places a new layer of financial complexity and potential burden on households, especially during heatwaves when AC use is unavoidable. This evolving billing structure creates a clear market opportunity for solutions that help consumers manage their peak demand, such as integrating solar power with battery storage or utilizing smart home energy management technologies.
Key Table 2: Heatwave Impact on Regional Electricity Grids (Peak Demand & Price Spikes)
Region | Event/Period | Impact on Electricity Demand/Price |
Global | 2024 Heatwaves | >40 countries set new peak demand records |
California | Summer 2024 | 20% increase in electricity usage due to extreme heat |
Texas | Warmest Days | Cooling demand can be 50% of total peak demand |
India | 1°C Temperature Rise | Leads to additional peak demand of over 7 GW |
British Columbia & Alberta | 2021 Heat Dome | Noticeably higher electricity demand than previous summers; BC peak approached 7,000 MW, Alberta 10,000 MW |
New York | July 2025 Heatwave | Real-time electricity prices peaked near $3,000/MWh (30x usual rate) |
US Average | Summer 2024 | Average monthly electricity bill up 4% from last year |
Smarter Cooling, Stronger Grids: The Path Forward
Addressing the escalating energy demands of a warming world requires a multi-pronged approach that combines individual actions with systemic technological and infrastructural advancements.
Energy efficiency in air conditioning is paramount. Investing in more energy-efficient AC units, such as those with variable-speed compressors and smart thermostats, can cut electricity consumption by up to 30%.
Beyond the units themselves, passive cooling measures and building design play a crucial role. This includes weatherizing and insulating homes to prevent air leaks, sealing ducts, using window treatments like shades and blinds to block sunlight, and strategically planting trees for natural shade. Simple behavioral changes, such as setting AC thermostats to higher temperatures, using fans to circulate air, and ensuring proper ventilation, can also significantly reduce energy consumption and bills.
Innovative solutions like Demand Response programs and smart grid technologies are essential for managing peak demand and enhancing grid stability. Smart energy management systems provide real-time visibility and control over energy consumption, helping to prevent grid overloading and dynamically routing power to areas with the highest demand.
Demand Response programs incentivize customers, residential, commercial, and industrial, to temporarily reduce or shift their energy consumption during peak heat events in exchange for financial benefits or bill credits. This might involve adjusting thermostat setpoints, delaying the use of large appliances, or automatically coordinating energy use in commercial buildings with grid needs.
These programs not only reduce peak load, easing strain on infrastructure and potentially delaying costly grid upgrades, but also contribute to lower wholesale energy prices and provide environmental benefits by reducing reliance on inefficient peaker plants. In Canada, programs like Ontario's Demand Response and Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI) offer significant payments and savings for participants who help manage system peaks, with aggregators like Edgecom Energy facilitating participation and maximizing revenue.
The transition to renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, is a critical component of building a more resilient and sustainable grid. These sources offer the cheapest way to meet rising electricity demand while avoiding a large increase in emissions.
However, the intermittent nature of renewables necessitates robust energy storage solutions. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are vital for optimizing solar arrays, allowing generated energy to be stored and discharged during peak demand periods, thereby reducing reliance on the grid and lowering utility demand fees. These systems contribute to a stable and reliable energy grid by providing dispatchable capacity, integrating local energy sources, and optimizing the use of existing transmission infrastructure.
Advanced conductor technologies, such as CTC Global's ACCC® Conductor, also offer an immediate and cost-effective solution to enhance grid capacity, doubling existing line capacity and reducing line losses, thereby improving resilience during high-demand periods like heatwaves.
Big Rock Power: Building a Resilient, Affordable Energy Future
At Big Rock Power, we understand the critical challenges facing our energy grids and the increasing burden on consumers due to climate-driven electricity demand. As a competitive retailer rooted in Alberta, we are committed to providing reliable power and natural gas services with transparent pricing, ensuring "Rock Solid Savings" for residential, small business, and farm consumers across the province. Our mission is to empower Albertans with practical, straightforward energy solutions that reduce costs without compromising on value or reliability.
One of our key offerings designed to directly reduce costs for consumers, particularly those embracing clean energy, is the Solar Club™ program.
This innovative program allows micro-generators to optimize their earnings and savings.
During periods of high solar generation, members can switch to our "HI Summer Rate" of 30.00¢/kWh, designed for exporting excess electricity back to the grid, maximizing the value of their clean energy production.
During times of lower generation or higher consumption from the grid, members can switch to our "LO Winter Rate" of 8.49¢/kWh.
We also offer a "Pre-Solar Rate" of 7.28¢/kWh, saving money for customers while they await solar installation.
This flexibility, combined with our fixed electricity rates, provides consumers with predictable bills and protection against volatile market spikes, directly addressing the financial impact of grid strain. By enabling customers to actively participate in balancing the grid and monetizing their solar investments, Big Rock Power helps put money back into their pockets.
Beyond direct consumer programs, Big Rock Power champions the broader adoption of advanced energy storage solutions that are crucial for building a resilient and affordable energy future.
Consider the "Big Rock" Battery Energy Storage System (BESS-not a Big Rock Power project) project in California as a prime example of the kind of large-scale solutions vital for grid stability.
This 200MW/400MWh BESS, recently energized, provides critical "resource adequacy" and ancillary services to the CAISO market, one of the world's largest power grids. Such projects are instrumental in balancing supply and demand in real-time, especially during peak periods driven by AC use. By storing excess energy from renewable sources when it's abundant and dispatching it when needed most, these systems reduce reliance on inefficient fossil fuel "peaker plants," thereby lowering overall system costs and enhancing grid reliability. The Big Rock BESS, for instance, secured a 12-year fixed-price Resource Adequacy contract, demonstrating the long-term revenue certainty and stability that such projects bring to the energy market.
These large-scale battery storage projects, like the Big Rock BESS, are not just about grid stability; they are fundamental to the global clean energy transition. They enable greater integration of renewable energy, support statewide emission reduction targets, and contribute to significant economic development through construction and operational jobs. By advocating for such advanced technologies, Big Rock Power is not only providing direct benefits to its customers through transparent pricing and innovative programs like the Solar Club but is also aligning with and promoting the systemic solutions necessary for a sustainable and affordable energy future for all.
Conclusion: Powering Through the Heat, Together
The relationship between a warming climate and our increasing reliance on air conditioning presents one of the most pressing energy challenges of our time. As heatwaves intensify and become more frequent, the human cost is undeniable, as tragically demonstrated by the British Columbia heat dome.
The booming AC industry, while providing essential comfort and safety, simultaneously drives unprecedented electricity demand, straining our grids, causing price spikes, and increasing the risk of blackouts. This complex interplay reveals critical vulnerabilities in our existing energy infrastructure and highlights the urgent need for a transformative approach.
Addressing this challenge requires a multi-faceted strategy. It demands a collective commitment to energy efficiency, from smart thermostats and improved building insulation to conscious behavioral changes. It necessitates the widespread adoption of smart grid technologies and demand response programs that empower consumers to manage their energy use and actively contribute to grid stability.
Most importantly, it calls for a rapid acceleration in the deployment of renewable energy sources, coupled with robust, large-scale energy storage solutions that can capture clean power and deliver it precisely when needed most.
At Big Rock Power, we are deeply committed to being a part of this solution. Through our transparent pricing and innovative programs like the Solar Club, we empower our customers to manage their energy costs effectively and participate in the clean energy transition. We champion the principles demonstrated by advanced energy storage projects, which are essential for building a resilient, affordable, and sustainable energy future for Alberta and beyond. The path forward is clear: we must cool our homes smarter, strengthen our grids, and embrace cleaner power.
Are you ready to be a part of this vital energy evolution?
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