The Power Grid Is Aging; Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About It?
- Larry Peters
- 7 days ago
- 7 min read
Hot take: Alberta’s electricity grid is the silent backbone of our modern economy. It is creaking under pressure, and the cost of that silence could be billions. We’re plugging in more than ever, EVs, electric heating, precision farm tech, but the grid that powers it all? Built for yesterday. While headlines focus on energy prices and new generation projects, the critical infrastructure that delivers power to homes, businesses, and industries is quietly aging, with urgent upgrades being pushed off until the risk of failure becomes reality.
A Ticking Time Bomb in the Wires and Warning Signs are Flashing
Much of Alberta’s distribution network is over 40 years old.
According to the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) and Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) reports, key sections of our infrastructure are already near maximum capacity, especially in fast-growing rural and suburban zones.
Recent winters have exposed Alberta’s grid fragility. During extreme cold snaps, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) has issued emergency alerts, asking consumers to reduce usage to avoid blackouts. In January 2024, the province even used the emergency cellphone alert system to warn of imminent outages as both renewable and natural gas plants struggled to keep up with record demand. These close calls are not isolated events, they are symptoms of a system stretched to its limits.
Grid alerts have surged: while Alberta saw just four alerts from 2017–2020, there have been 17 since 2021. The province’s reliance on a private market for capacity expansion, rather than coordinated public investment, has left critical upgrades lagging behind both demand growth and the rapid shift toward renewables.
And yet, this issue remains quietly swept under the rug while billions flow toward other projects.
Why Are Upgrades Being Delayed?
Despite the clear need, Alberta’s investment in grid modernization has not kept pace with rising demand, electrification, and the integration of renewables. Transmission congestion is now a chronic issue: in Q3 2024, Alberta’s grid was congested 45% of the time, undermining the province’s promise of a zero-congestion system. Two major transmission upgrades in southern Alberta, legally required to connect low-cost renewable energy, remain delayed by red tape and regulatory changes.
Distribution systems, the last-mile networks that deliver electricity to neighborhoods and businesses, are especially vulnerable. Many of Alberta’s distribution lines and substations date back decades and are ill-equipped to handle new loads from electric vehicles, data centers, and distributed solar. Deferred maintenance and underinvestment increase the risk of equipment failures, longer outages, and higher repair costs down the line.
The Cost of Inaction: Lessons from the U.S.
Alberta is not alone. Across North America, aging grids are a growing liability. In the United States, much of the electric grid was built in the 1960s and 1970s and is now nearing the end of its 50–80-year life cycle. The result? More frequent and severe outages, especially as climate-driven extreme weather events become the new normal. In 2023 alone, the U.S. saw a record number of billion-dollar weather disasters, with power outages jeopardizing critical services and costing tens of billions of dollars annually.
The U.S. experience is a warning: without sustained investment, reliability and resilience suffer, and the consequences are felt most acutely by vulnerable populations, older adults, those with medical needs, and rural communities. Deferred upgrades mean higher costs later, both in emergency repairs and in lost economic productivity.
The Cost of Catching Up
The financial requirement to modernize and expand the power grid is staggering. In the U.S., experts estimate that up to $1.4 trillion will be needed between 2025 and 2030 alone, with similar investments required through 2050. This spending targets not only new generation but also the transmission and distribution systems that move power reliably and securely to customers. Utilities are already raising rates to fund these upgrades, with U.S. retail electricity prices rising nearly 23% from 2019 to 2024.
According to AESO’s Long-Term Transmission Plan (2024), Alberta requires $10–14 billion in distribution and transmission upgrades over the next decade just to maintain reliability and handle forecasted growth. AESO has forecast an additional $30 billion in capital and operational costs by 2049 just to comply with new reliability and emissions standards. Without action, the province faces a future of higher costs, more frequent blackouts, and lost opportunities for economic growth and innovation.
That number doesn’t even account for the kind of modernization needed to accommodate:
Widespread EV charging (both residential and commercial)
Smart home and agri-tech power loads
Battery storage integration and decentralized renewables
By comparison:
Ontario is planning to invest $25.6 billion over the next decade in grid and transmission upgrades, largely funded through rate base expansion.
Texas, after its 2021 grid failures, committed more than $18 billion to shore up generation and transmission.
California has earmarked $49 billion over the next decade for climate resilience and grid modernization, funded in part by cap-and-trade revenues and green bonds.
For Alberta, the scale of investment needed is similarly massive.
So, where’s Alberta’s comprehensive plan?
Blackouts on the Horizon?
AESO’s 2023 Market Statistics show a steady increase in congestion management costs, a sign that the system is struggling to move electricity where it’s needed, when it’s needed.
These bottlenecks lead to:
Higher wholesale electricity prices
Stranded renewable projects (especially wind and solar in southern Alberta)
Reduced reliability, a.k.a. blackouts and brownouts waiting to happen
In 2023 alone, AESO curtailed over 140,000 MWh of renewable generation due to system limitations, enough to power nearly 19,000 homes for a year.
Long-Term Consequences of Delay
Increased Blackout Risk: Aging infrastructure and delayed upgrades mean more frequent and longer outages, especially during peak demand or extreme weather.
Distribution System Failures: Old substations and lines are more prone to breakdowns, leading to localized outages and costly emergency repairs.
Lost Economic Opportunities: Transmission bottlenecks prevent new renewable projects and data centers from connecting to the grid, stifling investment and job creation.
Higher Costs for Everyone: Deferred maintenance leads to higher repair bills, rising insurance costs, and ultimately, higher rates for consumers and businesses.
Public Health and Safety Risks: Outages disrupt hospitals, emergency response, and critical infrastructure, putting lives at risk.
Who’s Paying for This?
Spoiler alert: you are.
Despite record profits in the electricity generation and retail sector, and billions in dividends funneled from city-owned utilities like ENMAX to municipal coffers, infrastructure reinvestment hasn’t kept pace. Ratepayers are seeing higher bills, but not necessarily better service.
Meanwhile, regulated rate option (RRO) consumers were paying up to 70% more in 2023 compared to competitive contract holders, with no say in how those extra dollars are spent.
Several agencies and organizations are responsible for funding Alberta’s infrastructure upgrades, particularly for the energy distribution network:
1. Government of Alberta
Ministry of Infrastructure:
Leads the planning, funding, and delivery of provincial infrastructure projects, including upgrades and modernization of public facilities and critical systems. The ministry collaborates with other government departments, boards, and agencies to deliver capital projects, often leveraging alternative financing and public-private partnerships (P3s).
Local Government Fiscal Framework (LGFF):
The LGFF is Alberta’s primary municipal capital funding program, replacing the Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI) in 2024. It provides funding to municipalities for infrastructure projects, including those related to energy distribution.
Alternative Capital Financing Partnerships Office (ACFPO):
Operates within the Ministry of Infrastructure to oversee public-private partnerships and explore alternative funding models for large-scale infrastructure projects.
2. Municipal Governments
Rural and Urban Municipalities:
Municipalities are responsible for local infrastructure planning and often co-fund distribution upgrades through cost-sharing agreements, asset management, and collaboration with the province and industry partners. They advocate for consistent and adequate funding models to support sustainable infrastructure growth.
3. Government of Canada
Infrastructure Canada:
Provides significant funding through cost-sharing programs such as the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP) and the COVID-19 Resilience Stream, which support upgrades to public facilities and infrastructure in partnership with the province and municipalities.
Federal-Provincial Partnerships:
Many projects are co-funded by both levels of government, with the federal share often reaching 80% for certain eligible projects.
4. Industry and Private Sector
Public-Private Partnerships (P3s):
The province leverages private sector investment and expertise through P3 models for large infrastructure projects, including energy distribution networks.
Utility Companies:
Distribution utilities (such as ATCO, FortisAlberta, and ENMAX) invest in and maintain much of the province’s distribution infrastructure, funded through regulated rates and, in some cases, cost recovery mechanisms approved by the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC).
Summary Table
Agency/Organization | Role in Funding Infrastructure Upgrades |
Government of Alberta | Primary funder, planner and regulator |
Municipal Governments | Local planning, co-funding and asset management |
Government of Canada | Major co-funder via federal programs and partnerships |
Industry/Private Sector | Investor through P3s and regulated utility spending |
In summary:
Alberta’s infrastructure upgrades are funded through a mix of provincial and municipal government programs, federal cost-sharing initiatives, and private sector investment, with coordination across multiple agencies to address the province’s aging distribution network and broader infrastructure needs.
The Conversation Alberta Needs
The bottom line: Alberta’s grid is aging, and the cost of inaction is growing by the day. While political debates swirl around energy sources and climate policy, the wires and substations that keep the lights on are quietly reaching their breaking point.
Where is the money going, and why aren’t we investing in the grid’s future?
It’s time to demand transparency, prioritize infrastructure investment, and ensure Alberta’s grid is ready for the demands of the 21st century. The choice is clear: invest now, or pay much more later.
We need a serious public conversation about Alberta’s aging power infrastructure — and how we’re going to pay for its overhaul.
Waiting until the lights go out is not a strategy. Let’s make sure Alberta’s grid is ready for tomorrow, before it’s too late.
Questions worth asking:
Where’s the long-term capital plan for Alberta’s grid?
Should large-scale reinvestment come from profits, rate hikes, or public-private partnerships?
What happens if Alberta becomes a bottleneck for Canada’s clean energy transition?
How should we prioritize investments in distribution and transmission?
Quick Stats:
Metric | Alberta (2023–2024) |
Age of Majority of Distribution Grid | 30–50 years |
Estimated Upgrade Cost (10 years) | $10–14 Billion |
Congestion-Related Curtailment | 140,000+ MWh |
RRO Price Premium | Up to 70% higher |
Forecasted Load Growth (2035) | 21% increase (AESO) |
Want to dig deeper into how retail providers like Big Rock Power are navigating this system, and what we think needs to change? Let’s talk.
Big Rock Power is an Alberta-based retailer pushing for smarter, more sustainable energy. We're advocating for common-sense reinvestment — and helping customers avoid costly surprises in the meantime.
Visit our site. Talk to our team. Ask us the tough questions. www.bigrockpower.ca
Let’s get Alberta’s grid ready for tomorrow, today. Comment, share, or tag a policymaker. The future of Alberta’s energy system depends on it.
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